This is a follow up to my first post on the topic from the end of January 2021
First – thanks for all the nice comments regarding my analysis. There was really no need for me to create an update post as things were going pretty close to plan!
I think just as we slightly missed my 70k call at the top; we are similarly going to miss the 42k bottom.
Things that were correct:
Things I got wrong
Trading is hard guys – Dollar cost average in and don't try to time the market. As close to nailing it as I was, if you blindly followed my post you missed both the top and the bottom!
Now on to my view for the next cycle of the 2021 Bull Market:
I believe the local low is IN. The strong bounce off 47k front run both the filling of the gap at 42k as well as the 20 week moving average which historically BTC has tested in each bull cycle. I think it is very likely we test this MA at some point, but it won't be right now.
Chart below shows we missed the 20WMA by about 6%
By the way – my yellow arrows are drawn where I had them from Jan.
So where from here?
I remain with my initial call of 209k. I believe over the next 13-15 weeks we will climb to my 209k target:
After this is when we see a steep correction. Likely this is when we go and touch the 20WMA.
The tricky thing about this call is that I don't know where the 20WMA will be 15-20 weeks from now! So my best guess is on the chart here.
Yes – a pullback of about 66% to the 70k area over about 3-4 weeks, creating our first blow off top of this cycle.
I have been thinking since my initial post that the overall bull market cycle seems compressed, as I see this crash to 70k occurring in the August time-frame. But I think this makes way for the 2nd blow-off top in 2021.
You see, if we look back at the 2013 bull cycle, we made 2 tops during that cycle. First at $266 then at $1239.
I can see us doing something similar in the 2021 cycle; though not as pronounced as in 2013.
After the crash to the 20WMA, I see us going to 488k in late 2021; more than doubling the 209k interim top this summer. In 2013 we did a 5x from the 1st to 2nd top. Things are more orderly now and I think we do a 2.33x – 2.5x from the previous top.
I am going to leave my analysis here. As we approach the middle of the summer we can see how I did and re-adjust or add to the analysis then. Will also update where that 20WMA pullback looks like it will take place.
TO THE MOON
TL;DR – Local low is in, 209k in the summer followed by a pullback to the 20WMA at around 70k. Then moon to 488k to complete the bull cycle.