In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we review a variety of technical and fundamental signals on the Bitcoin price monthly chart to see if we are getting closer to a bottom in crypto.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): October 3, 2022
The monthly closed with a doji candle, which typically forms at a point of indecision before either a reversal, or strong continuation. Past monthly dojis have commonly preceded short- and long-term turning points in crypto. The September monthly candle was the first ever monthly close below Bitcoin’s former all time high set back in December of 2017.
Although Bitcoin was clearly overvalued back then, it is hard to imagine in today’s world that the top cryptocurrency is still overvalued a full five years later.
Bearish BTC Momentum Begins To Wane… Maybe
The October monthly candle opened with pink on the LMACD histogram. This signal in the past put bear markets back into hibernation mode for at least a year or more, and suggests a major shift in momentum. But October must close bullish to confirm and cement the change in color on the Bitcoin monthly chart.
The monthly Relative Strength Index remains the lowest in Bitcoin history, but is grinding along the bottom of a downward sloping channel. The same downward slope has connected past RSI peaks.
Bitcoin bearish momentum might be weakening | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Investors Could Be Getting Over Their Loss
The Coppock Curve has also finally touched down at the same level where past bear market bottoms have occurred. Time cycle tools also suggest there could be some rhythmic behavior to Bitcoin that is about to unfold.
The Coppock Curve was created by E.S.C. Coppock, who was asked by his church to identify long-term buying opportunities for investors. It is based on the idea that it takes between 11 and 14 months for a bear market to end, as that’s roughly how long it takes for a human to get over mourning a significant loss.
Bear markets take at minimum 14 months | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Related Reading: Bitcoin & The Global Currency Meltdown | BTCUSD September 28, 2022
Did Satoshi Call The Bottom In Crypto?
Another possible bottom signal isn’t technical, but fundamental. Bitcoin price has now been in the lower range of the cost of production at about the same length of time as the 2018 bear market bottom.
This is notable, because in commodities, prices bottom out near the cost of production. Even Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto spoke of this.
“The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.”
Has Bitcoin bottomed at the cost of production? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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— Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) September 28, 2022
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com