TLDR: if you apply US Department of Justice sentencing guidelines to SBF's actions, he should be sentenced to life in prison
Apparently prison time is determined like a reverse video game, the more points you acquire, the higher your "Offense Level" and the more months you spend in PMITA
43 is the maximum Offense Level and sentencing guidelines recommend life imprisonment even for first-time offenders.
There is a 600 page rulebook that determines your Offense Level
What SBF's law professor dad is probably reading right now:
THEFT, EMBEZZLEMENT, RECEIPT OF STOLEN PROPERTY, PROPERTY DESTRUCTION, AND OFFENSES INVOLVING FRAUD OR DECEIT
If the loss exceeded $6,500, increase the offense level as follows…
…More than $550,000,000 add 30
So based on the $6.5 billion hole we're starting at level 30
(Apply the greatest) If the offense— (A) (i) involved 10 or more victims; (ii) was committed through massmarketing; or (iii) resulted in substantial financial hardship to one or more victims, increase by 2 levels; (B) resulted in substantial financial hardship to five or more victims, increase by 4 levels; or (C) resulted in substantial financial hardship to 25 or more victims, increase by 6 levels
Since there are definitely more than 25 people who lost all their net worth on FTX, add 6 = 36
If the offense involved (A) a misrepresentation that the defendant was acting on behalf of a charitable, educational, religious, or political organization, or a government agency; (B) a misrepresentation or other fraudulent action during the course of a bankruptcy proceeding; (C) a violation of any prior, specific judicial or administrative order, injunction, decree, or process not addressed elsewhere in the guidelines; or (D) a misrepresentation to a consumer in connection with obtaining, providing, or furnishing financial assistance for an institution of higher education, increase by 2 levels.
Effective Altruism: add 2 = 38
If (A) the defendant relocated, or participated in relocating, a fraudulent scheme to another jurisdiction to evade law enforcement or regulatory officials; (B) a substantial part of a fraudulent scheme was committed from outside the United States; or (C) the offense otherwise involved sophisticated means and the defendant intentionally engaged in or caused the conduct constituting sophisticated means, increase by 2 levels.
Bahamas: add 2 = 40
the offense (i) substantially jeopardized the safety and soundness of a financial institution; or (ii) substantially endangered the solvency or financial security of an organization that, at any time during the offense, (I) was a publicly traded company; or (II) had 1,000 or more employees, increase by 4 levels
Jeopardized a bunch of other financial institutions: add 4 = 44
The cumulative adjustments from application of both subsections (b)(2) and (b)(17)(B) shall not exceed 8 levels, except as provided in subdivision (D).
Minus 2 due to a technicality = 42
If the offense involved: (A) a violation of securities law and, at the time of the offense, the defendant was (i) an officer or a director of a publicly traded company; (ii) a registered broker or dealer, or a person associated with a broker or dealer; or (iii) an investment adviser, or a person associated with an investment adviser; or (B) a violation of commodities law and, at the time of the offense, the defendant was (i) an officer or a director of a futures commission merchant or an introducing broker; (ii) a commodities trading advisor; or (iii) a commodity pool operator,
Are FTX coins securities? Commodities? If yes add 4 = 46
In rare cases, a total offense level of less than 1 or more than 43 may result from application of the guidelines. A total offense level of less than 1 is to be treated as an offense level of 1. An offense level of more than 43 is to be treated as an offense level of 43.
46 > 43, so 43
Offense Level 43 outcome: Life Imprisonment
Obligatory disclaimer, I am not a lawyer, do not rely upon this for legal advice, do not attempt to exceed the US Department of Justice's Maximum Offense Level at home, if you do find yourself at over the Maximum Offense Level, please find a real lawyer (or your dad if he teaches at Stanford Law), etc etc